Analysis
PAGCOR was founded in 1977 and is one of 123 state-owned enterprises regulated by the commission. However, PAGCOR acts as both an operator and a regulator of casinos. The commission plans to remove PAGCOR’s regulatory powers if it is privatised. PAGCOR is a controversial company, but also an important taxpayer, as well as an employer of more than 11,000. It recorded P57.3bn (US$1.1bn) in income from gambling operations in 2017, and said that it paid around P30bn in tax last year. PAGCOR also expects higher revenues in 2018 to be supported by 45 new licences that it issued for online casinos, primarily to serve offshore markets.
privatisation
Progress in paring down PAGCOR’s regulatory function could be slow in practice, owing to political considerations. A 2007 law during the presidency of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (in office 2001‑10) extended PAGCOR’s licensing mandate by 25 years. PAGCOR continues to hand out provisional licences for new projects, despite a moratorium on new casinos announced by Mr Duterte in January. In particular, PAGCOR is facing scrutiny over its award of a provisional licence for a planned US$500m casino on Boracay, an island resort popular with tourists. In March Mr Duterte ordered the closure of Boracay for six months due to contaminated water.
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GOCCs will continue to be reviewed for privatisation as part of the Philippine Development Plan (covering 2017‑22). Such efforts have provided a one-off positive boost to government revenue in the past. More broadly, they have served to inject more efficiency into the economy by fostering a more competitive playing field, while reducing avenues for corruption. Whether or not the government will fetch a good price for PAGCOR in the near term is another matter altogether, however. Indeed, the stockmarket has been on a sharp downward trend since hitting a peak in late January.
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Impact on the forecast
We will review our fiscal forecast if the privatisation of PAGCOR is confirmed. Currently, our forecast for only a modest narrowing of the budget deficit, to the equivalent of 1.9% of GDP this year, remains appropriate.
